Experts: Post Market Steel Market Forecasts

After the May Day holiday, the steel market after a short break began daily trading, after the early shock, now the factory price of various types of steel have emerged phenomenon upside down, especially in the pre-holiday rally appeared rebar market prices Under such circumstances, many well-established old traders are uncertain about the post-holiday market. The downstream steel demand is subject to ups and downs due to changes in the market environment. Therefore, the traditional supply and demand are used to determine the price of the market. Changes have been a bit difficult. The changes in the market motivate all parties involved in the market to keep up with the times and collect information from all aspects to predict the next changes in the market. Only by walking in front of the market can we grasp the market opportunities. The following changes are based on the latest changes in the market. The prediction of steel products will hopefully help us in our trade operations.

Larger pressure on the macro face

As for whether the current economy is overheating, the opinions of various social strata are not the same. Even the comments made by the National Bureau of Statistics on the release of economic operating data are still unclear and have not been made. However, on April 29th near May 1st, the People's Bank of China suddenly announced news of raising the deposit reserve ratio and decided to raise the deposit reserve ratio of depository financial institutions by 0.5% from May 15, 2007.

Adjustments to the deposit reserve ratio

frequency

time

before fixing

adjusted

Magnitude

15

April 29, 2007

10.50%

11.00%

0.50%

14

April 16, 2007

10%

10.50%

0.50%

13

February 25, 2007

9.50%

10%

0.50%

12

January 15, 2007

9%

9.50%

0.50%

11

November 15, 2006

8.50%

9%

0.50%

10

August 15, 2006

8%

8.50%

0.50%

9

July 5, 2006

7.50%

8%

0.50%

8

April 25, 2004

7%

7.50%

0.50%

7

September 21, 2003

6%

7%

1%

6

November 21, 1999

8%

6%

-2%

5

March 21, 1998

13%

8%

-5%

4

September 1988

12%

13%

1%

3

87 years

10%

12%

2%

2

85 years

The central bank adjusted the statutory deposit reserve ratio to 10%

1

84 years

According to the types of deposits, the PBOC stipulates the statutory deposit reserve ratio, corporate deposits 20%, rural deposits 25%, and savings deposits 40%



The central bank is actually playing tricks. They always think that they can manage the macro economy without using conventional monetary policy tools . The facts will also prove that this is just an illusion. The main purpose of the central bank raising the deposit reserve ratio this time is to control the excessively rapid inflow of hot money in China and to control the excessive growth of money and credit. It does not rule out the possibility of further adjustments by the Central Bank. Judging from various macro-level measures, the state does not actually hope that the economy will overheat and develop. It is expected that investment will be curbed by various regulatory measures. From this point of view, the downstream consumer demand for steel products will surely be restrained, and fluctuations in steel consumption will be inevitable. Will affect the fluctuation of the steel market price.

In addition, the Ministry of Commerce issued on its website the Announcement No. 41 of 2007 issued by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs on the Administration of Export Licenses for the Export of Certain Steel Products. It was decided that starting from May 20, 2007, the exports of plate products with 83 tariff numbers would be subject to export license management in accordance with the relevant provisions of the “Measures for the Administration of Export Licenses of Goods”. The products corresponding to the 83 tariff codes are also the ordinary steel products with a relatively large export volume of export tax rebates that were canceled recently. The intention of export license management is to limit or supervise the types, quantities, and amounts of certain import and export commodities within a certain period of time. However, the measures introduced this time did not explicitly impose restrictions on categories, quantities, and amounts. Therefore, the intention of supervision became apparent.

Although there is no quantitative limit, it will affect exports in disguised form. Exporting enterprises can obtain monitoring and early warning of export quantities, varieties, prices, destinations, etc., through the permit, so that timely response measures can be taken. The export license management provides the relevant departments with a large operating space. The validity period of the permit is only three months, and the general cargo export cycle also takes three months. The relevant departments can delay the time for approval on various grounds, and even encourage internal approval and other means to increase the friction of the permit, so as to achieve the purpose of restricting the export. That is, the transaction costs of the steel export link will increase, affecting exports.

Production costs rose sharply

From the perspective of recent steel production costs, iron ore prices rose from 600 yuan/ton three months ago to the current 800 yuan/ton, coke increased from 1000 yuan/ton to the current 1200 yuan/ton, and coal and electricity are basically In the rise, in order to control the production of high-energy-consuming enterprises, it is expected that the country will introduce a differential tariff policy in the near future and increase the production price of iron and steel production enterprises. From various data estimates, from the beginning of the year to the present, the production costs of iron and steel companies have risen by about 20%. Recently, from the price of semi-finished steel billets, the increase has been alarming. For example, in the East China region, the billet prices have risen steadily. The prices of common billet in the Jiangsu market are 3,240 yuan/ton, and low-alloy billets are 3,270 yuan/ton; in the Hebei region Tangshan market, general carbon 150mm billet price 3170 yuan / ton, general carbon 165mm billet price 3,200 yuan / ton, and before the holiday rose 50-80 yuan / ton; low alloy billet was 3,250 yuan / ton, an increase of 80 yuan / ton.

Since mid-to-late March, especially after entering April, the domestic steel market has been warming rapidly due to the increase in demand. The prices of main steel products such as steel strip, coils, wire rods, steel bars, and steel have steadily increased, spurring the release of steel mills' production capacity. In particular, steel mills that purchase rolled steel products have increased demand for steel billets. Some steel traders have seen large profit margins in the billet market. They have directly switched to billet trade, and increased their intermediate demand. They are driven by both the end demand and the intermediate demand. Next, the billet market was heated up and the price went up.

Since the beginning of this year, the global economy has continued to show growth, and the demand for steel products has continued to increase, which has led to the consumption of billets. The export prices of domestic steel billets are also rising. The billet prices exported from China to Vietnam continue to rise, which is an increase of US$25-30/tonne compared with March. Currently, Q235 billets entering Vietnam are quoted at US$505-515/ton, and 20MnSi bills are US$515-520/ton. It is reported that Brazil's slab price for South Korea's shipments in the second quarter reached US$525/tonne (FOB), which was US$85/ton higher than the previous quarter's transaction price, and was converted to CIF, which is approximately US$570/ton (South Korea C&F). . It is expected that the international slab prices will continue to rise and will provide strong support to the hot coil market in China and Asia.

After the holiday, it is expected that the billet price will continue to rise. In the short term, the production cost of the domestic steel production enterprises may not decrease in the short term. In addition, as the domestic CPI trend rises month by month, inflation in the money market is inevitable. It will be transmitted to the prices of resource-type commodities. Recently, the increase in the price of means of production has proved this point.

Post-holiday steel market trend forecast

On May 3, Indian Finance Minister P. Chidambaram announced that he will impose an export tariff of Rs 50/t and a price of US$ 1.22/tonne for fines less than 62%; for grades above 62% The ore fines and all lump mines still maintain export tariffs of R$300/t and US$7/t. In the afternoon, prices of more than 62% grade printed ore will still rise in the domestic market, but its market share will gradually be replaced by iron ore products from other countries; the price of the ore and mine below 62% grade will show a certain margin after a short-term wait-and-see. Downgrade. From the trend of iron ore prices, it will remain strong after the holiday, and the possibility of pulling steel market prices from the cost of production still exists.

In terms of exchange rates, the recent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has now broken through an important threshold of exchange of US$1 to 7.7 yuan. After the ASEAN 10+3 finance ministers’ meeting, it is estimated that it will continue to appreciate. From the current situation, the appreciation of the RMB is relative to the international The appreciation of the market's resource products can basically ignore the impact, and the recent continuous growth in steel exports has proved this view.

According to the analysis of information obtained from various aspects of the market, most of the steel varieties after the holiday season will maintain a strong upward trend. Steel billets, rebars, wire rods and other basic steel products are greatly affected by the rise in production raw materials, and there is room for some upside in the short-term, while hot coils and early-middle-plate gains are too large. They are expected to be high at the post-holiday stage, but due to upstream products Top support, the price down space is not large. The short-term increase in cold rolling is also relatively large, but due to the limited capacity release of steel mills in the short term, the market price will be at a high level of consolidation. The galvanized cold-rolled sheet due to the impact of non-ferrous metal prices in the international market during the May Day, post-holiday prices will be in a trend of rising.
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